The Fed Isn’t the Main Problem Right Now. The Bonds Are.
A simple breakdown of macro, crypto structure, and the levels that matter most from here
Last week gave people a reason to feel better.
BTC pushed, alts still gave some decent longs, and there were still opportunities if you stayed sharp. But when I zoom out, I still don’t think this is the kind of market where people should get too comfortable. If anything, I think a lot of people are still focused on the wrong thing.
Everyone keeps talking about the Fed. When are they cutting. When are they hiking. When are they pivoting. All of that.
I get it, but I honestly don’t think that’s the main story right now.
I think the more important story is the bond market.
That’s where a lot of the real tightening is happening. The economy is not fully crashing, but the quality of the growth underneath still looks worse to me than the headlines suggest. The 30-year pushed above 5% and spent time near that level, which is a real problem by itself. The 10-year also pushed high enough that the market started seriously talking about 5%. When yields stay elevated like that, they tighten financial conditions whether the Fed moves or not. That pressure eventually feeds into mortgages, business loans, credit cards, and then the consumer. So if people are still staring only at the Fed, I think they’re missing the bigger issue.
And on top of that, inflation still seems to be hurting people more than headline growth is helping them. PCE still looked like a consumer that is spending under pressure, not a consumer that is actually strong. People are still spending, but they’re doing it with less cushion, less buying power, and thinner pockets. That is not healthy consumer strength. That is people hanging on. You can see it in behavior, you can see it in housing, and you can see it in the fact that a lot of people are still paying for what they need, not really what they want.
Housing is still one of the clearest tells. In Canada especially, it’s bad. Homes that would have sold much easier a few years ago are sitting. Sellers are cutting. In a lot of cases, it’s cheaper to rent than to buy. That’s not a healthy setup. That tells me the real economy is still under pressure, even if people want to pretend everything is fine because a handful of stocks are still going up.
And that’s the other part people don’t want to say out loud. In equities, it’s not the whole market that looks strong. It’s a handful of names. A lot of what’s been leading has had some combination of policy tailwind, strategic importance, AI exposure, or government-related support behind it. The broader market still looks much weaker underneath the surface than the headlines make it seem.
Crypto is still building, just not in the sexy way people want
On the crypto side, I still think the real story is infrastructure.
The stablecoin buildout is still happening. The fight around the Clarity Act matters. There is clearly pushback because it would help move crypto further into the financial system in a way that actually matters over time. That’s not some fun CT narrative, but it does matter. The more stablecoin rails get built, the easier it becomes to bring liquidity into crypto next cycle. I still think stablecoins are going to be the real gateway drug into crypto this time around. Not Bitcoin. Not Ethereum. Not Solana. Stablecoins.
The other important thing is Hyperliquid.
TradFi is clearly starting to take it more seriously. You’re seeing more traditional finance accounts actually paying attention to weekend price action on Hyperliquid. You’re seeing more people treat it like a real venue, not just some crypto perp casino. My read is that the reason policy people and institutions seem more open to Hyperliquid than they were to the old offshore crypto perp model is because Hyperliquid can potentially support parts of the broader financial system instead of only pulling people away from it. That’s a very different setup than what we had with Binance, BitMEX, FTX, and the rest.
That said, I still think HYPE has a risk people don’t really want to talk about. If a coin gets too much consensus too early, especially in a rough market, it can end up underperforming later when the real bull run starts and money rotates harder into other stuff. I still love Hyperliquid. I still think it’s one of the best products in crypto. But I also think there’s a real chance it gets outperformed later if it goes too far, too early.
BTC still looks like a bearish market trying to squeeze, not a real bottom
Let’s just be honest.
BTC on the higher timeframe still does not look good.
The monthly looks weak. It rejected the 13 and 21 EMA, and it looks like it’s going to close below the 34 EMA. That’s not what a real healthy market looks like. And I’m still on the boat that the halving price getting lost was a big deal. We’ve never really had that happen the way it did this time, and I don’t think enough people are respecting that.
Right now my view is still that BTC can get a bearish pump in June, but I don’t think that means we’re going back to the highs. I think more likely we build a lower high, probably somewhere in the high 70s to low 80s, and then keep rolling over. If BTC actually wants to look constructive, it needs to reclaim the 200s on the daily, then reclaim 78K on the 12-hour, and 75K on the 4-hour as a first step. Until then, I’m looking at pumps as things to trade, not something to marry.
And if I’m being real, I still think this cycle eventually has a much deeper move lower in it. A lot of people are stuck on 50K because of the ETF launch price. I’m not. I think there’s a real chance BTC breaks that and goes into the 40K area, maybe even lower depending on how bad it gets. I’m not saying that happens tomorrow. I’m saying I still don’t think the final bottom is in.
Source levels from the stream.
ETH still looks cleaner than SOL, but it still looks like shit overall
ETH is still the cleaner chart compared to SOL, but I’m not going to pretend it looks great. It doesn’t. It still looks like shit overall. The difference is just that SOL looks even worse.
On ETH, the way I’m looking at it is pretty simple. If it reclaims the 50ma/ema on the 4-hour around 2050, it can probably push into 2150 to 2160. If it reclaims the 12-hour after that and gets a daily close above 2250, then the gap fill to 2500 becomes more realistic. So there is a path for a bullish pump. But I still think the probability is lower than most people want to admit because ETH doesn’t have a real trend on the 4-hour, 12-hour, daily, 3-day, or even the weekly.
And if ETH loses 1750 properly, it will get ugly. Really ugly. At that point I think you start opening the door to 1400, and eventually even the 1K area. That sounds crazy to people now, but when markets get properly bad, these moves stop looking crazy real fast.
Source levels from the stream.
SOL is still the weakest of the three
SOL still looks like the weakest of the three. That hasn’t changed.
It’s had eight red monthly candles in a row. There is no real higher timeframe trend on it. It keeps trying to reclaim levels and failing. And honestly, I think Solana as a whole left a bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths this cycle. The culture around it got too extractive, too short-term, too spiritually poor, and I think that matters more than people realize.
That’s also why I think Base has quietly outperformed where it matters. Base users are way more willing to hold trash for longer. ETH people are more delusionally optimistic, and for meme coins and on-chain stuff, that actually matters. Solana people turned into pure PvP way too fast. That kind of mindset kills your own ecosystem over time.
Chart-wise, SOL can still get a pump. It’s oversold enough that I wouldn’t be shocked by it. But level by level, it needs to reclaim 83.5 on the 4-hour, then 86 on the 12-hour, then around 90 on the daily, and really 97 to 98 on the 3-day if anyone wants to start pretending it looks bullish again. Until that happens, I still think it’s more likely to revisit the lows than people want to admit.
One tradfi name I’m still paying attention to is BlackBerry
I still think BlackBerry is one of the more overlooked long-term names out there.
The market still does not understand how important security is going to be for AI, robotics, automotive systems, and eventually quantum computing. People always focus on the sexy part first. They care about the model, the interface, the hardware, the hype. Nobody cares about security until it’s too late. That’s where I think BlackBerry fits in.
They already have real government trust, real security credibility, and real operating system exposure through QNX. The way I look at it, if AI and automation become the standard in the physical world, then security becomes one of the most important layers in the whole stack. And if that’s true, BlackBerry has a real shot to become a much bigger company than the market currently gives it credit for. This is not a next-week trade for me. It’s a multi-year thesis.
Final takeaway
The simple version is this.
I still think this is a bearish market. I still think the higher timeframe is weak. I still think people are underestimating the bond market and overfocusing on the Fed. I still think crypto can build good infrastructure underneath all of this, especially around stablecoins and Hyperliquid, while price still stays fragile on the surface.
And from a trading point of view, I’m still treating this as a market where good setups should be respected, but profits should be taken. I’m not interested in getting cute and pretending this is some clean bull market where I need to baghold everything. If something gives me a move, I’ll take it. If the market gives me a reclaim, I’ll trade it. But I’m not forgetting the bigger picture just because we get a bounce.
That’s still the game right now.
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